A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
